00:00:00: BULL MARKETS OFTEN TOP OUT AT 31 TO 35 TIMES S&P DIVIDENDS WITH RATES RISING. ******* OPTION 2 NOTES ************** REMEMBER---THIS IS A TEST MODEL---SO JUST USE IT TO PLAY WHAT IF SCENARIOS. REMEMBER---YOU ARE LOOKING FOR MARKET ESTIMATES---NOT ABSOLUTE PRICE LEVELS. USE 1.0 FOR BETA IF YOU ARE CHECKING A MARKET INDEX - WORK WITH THE S&P 500. IMPLIED MEANS FACTOR WAS DERIVED FROM FORMULA RATHER THAN FACTOR YOU ENTERED. (INVALID WHEN REAL T-BILL RATES ARE NEGATIVE -- T-BILL RATE MINUS INFLATION). THIS MODEL IS SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN INTEREST RATES AND ALSO INFLATION RATE. ******* OPTION 1 NOTES **************HELP-M.EXE WAIT--DISK DRIVE OPERATING ...PLEASE WAIT...PRINTING... HIT A KEY TO CONTINUE 3. ENTER 3 MONTH T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE % 2. ENTER ESTIMATED DIVIDENDS FOR INDEX $ YOUR ENTRIES WERE: (2.86% DIV.YIELD VRS 6%+ AND RISING) DIVIDENDS WITH T-BILL YIELDS OVER 6% 1987 STOCK MARKET TOPPED AT 35 TIMES HISTORIC - EXTREME MARKET VALUATIONS: B. UPPER EDGE OF EXTREME VALUATION = $ A. LOWER EDGE OF EXTREME VALUATION = $ 3. ENTER CURRENT T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE % 2. ENTER CURRENT DIVIDENDS FOR S&P-500 $ 1. ENTER TODAY'S DATE..........(YYMMDD) ENTER THE FOLLOWING: WAITING FOR YOU TO TYPE A NUMBER 8 EXIT OUT OF THE PROGRAM 7 --NOT USED-- 6 CHECK DATE IN THE FILES 5 --MAIN MENU-- 4 --NOT USED-- 3 HELP -- FOR PRICE MODEL 2 EXTREMES OF BULL MARKET 1 RUN PROGRAM-PRICE MODEL TYPE MARKET PRICE MENU 865H321OSUM-MODL.FIL, type Y for YES or N for NO DO YOU WANT TO SAVE RESULTS TO THE SUMMARY FILE BY DAVE W. PEMBERTON C 1985 2. ALSO CAN USE FOR MARKET INDEX RANGE OF STOCK--FROM EARNINGS. 1. USE TO ESTIMATE UPPER PRICE MARKET PRICE HIT A KEY TO CONTINUE LISTED UNDER MONEY RATES SECTION (IN BARRONS FINANCIAL) CHECK THE U.S. T-BILL DISCOUNT RATE IS TOO FEW -- USE EARLIER DATED CONTRACT IF OPEN INTEREST (CONTRACTS OUTSTANDING) TO GET TOTAL DAYS USE MONTHS X 30 (ISSUED QUARTERLY--SO 5-10 MONTHS IS OK) FIND AN ISSUE 6 TO 9 MONTHS FORWARD LISTED UNDER COMMODITIES AND FUTURES (IN BARRONS FINANCIAL) CHECK THE U.S. T-BILL SETTLEMENT PRICEMENU.EXE HIT A KEY TO CONTINUE ENDn| ENDEDy Type Y for yes or N for no ARE YOU SURE THAT YOU WANT TO END PROGRAM NOTES MARKET EXTREME BASED ON DIVIDENDS ENTER THE FOLLOWING 8 ITEMS THE RESULTS THE RESULTS PLEASE...READ..THE PROGRAM NOTES 9. STOCK BETA (USE 1 FOR AN INDEX) 8. ENTER EST.OF DIVIDEND PER SHARE $ 7. ENTER EST.OF EARNINGS PER SHARE $ 6. ENTER STOCK NAME OR STOCK INDEX 5. ESTIMATE INFLATION FOR THE YEAR % 4. DAYS TO T-BILL SETTLEMENT DATE 3. ENTER 9 MO. T-BILL FUTURE PRICE $ 2. ENTER YEAR FOR ESTIMATE (YY-YY) 2. ENTER 3 MO. T-BILL DISC.RATE IN % 1. ENTER TODAY'S DATE (YYMMDD) 1. ENTER TODAY'S DATE (YYMMDD) YOUR ENTRIES WERE: ANNUAL 'IMPLIED' INFLATION RATE% A. VALUE (BASED ON INFLATION -SEE 5) RESULTS:NY Type Y for yes or N for no DO YOU WANT TO PRINT IT ON PRINTER 6 - OPTION NOT ACTIVE - S TYPE S TO RE-START LOOKS LIKE A BAD DISK-COPY EVERYTHING TO GOOD DISK CHECK TO BE SURE DISK IS INSERTED OK THIS DISK IS SEEMS TO BE WRITE PROTECTED THIS DISK IS FULL-NEED ANOTHER ONE THAT DATE ALREADY EXISTS IN A FILE CHECK IF PRINTER IS ON AND HAS PAPER OR FILE IS NOT ON THIS DISK YOU ENTERED WRONG FILE NUMBER*** *** ERROR *** ERROR *** ERROR # PLEASE...READ..THE PROGRAM NOTES 9. STOCK BETA (USE 1.0 FOR AN INDEX) 8. ENTER ANNUAL DIVIDEND PER SHARE $ 7. ENTER EST.OF EARNINGS PER SHARE $ 6. ENTER STOCK NAME OR STOCK INDEX ##.## 5. ENTER YEAR - YEAR INFLATION RATE % ### 4. DAYS TO T-BILL SETTLEMENT DATE ###.## 3. ENTER 9 MO. T-BILL FUTURES PRICE $ 2. ENTER 3 MO. T-BILL DISC. RATE IN % 1. ENTER TODAY'S DATE (YYMMDD) 1. ENTER TODAY'S DATE (YYMMDD) YOUR ENTRIES WERE: * VERY POOR ESTIMATE - WHEN T BILL RATE IS NEGATIVE-BELOW INFLATION * ANNUAL 'IMPLIED' INFLATION RATE % B. VALUE (BASED ON IMPLIED INTEREST) ####.## A. VALUE (BASED ON INFLATION--SEE 5) THE TRUE INTEREST RATE NOW IS % YOU ENTERED DISCOUNT RATE AS % ##.## YOU ENTERED INFLATION RATE AS % * THIS MODEL IS NOT APPROPRIATE WHEN T-BILL RATES ARE NEGATIVE * 9. STOCK BETA (USE 1 FOR AN INDEX) 1 8. ENTER ANNUAL DIVIDEND PER SHARE 7. ENTER EST.OF EARNINGS PER SHARE S&P-500 6. ENTER STOCK NAME OR STOCK INDEX S&P-500 NOT LIKELY-NUMBER MORE THAN 50 NOT LIKELY-NUMBER LESS THAN 1.0 C.P.I. RATE IN % (EXAMPLE 4.5) 5. ENTER YEAR ON YEAR INFLATION OF (MORE THAN 30 OR LESS THAN 365) 4. DAYS TO T-BILL SETTLEMENT DATE NOT VERY LIKELY-LET'S TRY AGAIN (FOR INSTRUCTION ENTER 100) 3. ENTER 6 MO. T-BILL FUTURE PRICE (YIELD IN %--NOT PRICE...) (FOR INSTRUCTION ENTER 100) 2. ENTER 3 MO. T-BILL DISC. RATE % 1. ENTER TODAY'S DATE (YYMMDD) P
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